This map shows the mean predicted clinical burden of Plasmodium falciparum malaria in terms of the number of clinical cases in people of all ages per year per 5x5km.
Light grey areas are P. falciparum malaria free and dark grey areas have an unstable risk of malaria transmission (i.e. annual case incidence, or API, is reported at less than 1 per 10,000).
The predictions of clinical burden are based on a Bayesian geostatistical model that uses our predictions of malaria endemicity (prevalence), the relationship between prevalence and clinical incidence, and population estimates. The model generates a range of estimates at each location (a posterior distribution) and this map shows the mean estimate for each posterior distribution. This approach enables us to quantify the uncertainty in our estimates and this uncertainty is represented in the second map below.
You can find out more about our use of Bayesian model-based geostatistics here.