Modelled Plasmodium vivax relapse incidence map in 2013 globally

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This map shows the predicted Plasmodium vivax relapse.

The incidence rate of relapse was calculated from number of first relapse events to occur in 30,049 records of P. vivax cases along with the total person time observed. The factors affecting incidence were modelled using a mixed-effects meta-analysis in R.

Various geographic zones to describe variation in relapse periodicity were included in the meta-analysis of relapse rate. The boundaries shown in the map represent the zones that produced the best model, which were defined by similar climatic, malaria transmission and vector conditions.

Areas outside the epidemiological zones are shown in grey. Relapse incidence is shown on a spectrum of blue to red, with the highest relapse incidence in red. In some regions, the modelled rate varied from raw calculated rates due to low numbers of relapse observations. The zone that includes India was particularly uncertain because the prediction due to few relapse observations relative to the large number of case records and is hatched in the map. Highest relapse incidence is predicted to occur in Southeast Asia and Melanesia and South America.


Tools used to create map & published version

Battle, K.E., Karhunen, M.S., Bhatt, S., Gething, P.W., Howes, R.E., Golding, N., Van Boeckel, T.P., Messina, J.P., Shanks, G.D., Smith, D.L., Baird, J.K. and Hay, S.I. (2014). Geographical variation in Plasmodium vivaxrelapse. Malaria Journal, 13 : 144.

Global surface in GeoTiff format [5.2 MB] (None)

Global surface in Binary Float format [4.6 MB] (None)