The spatial distribution of Plasmodium falciparum malaria stratified by endemicity class map in 2010 globally

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This map classifies Plasmodium falciparum endemicity into successive levels of risk, within the limits of stable malaria transmission.

Areas shown in light pink are those at the lowest levels of risk, where annually averaged infection prevalence in 2-10 year olds (PfPR2-10) is likely to be lower than 5%. Areas shown in red are those at intermediate risk, where PfPR2-10 is likely to be higher than 5% but less than 40%. Areas shown in dark red are those at the highest levels of risk, where PfPR2-10 is likely to exceed 40%.

Classifications are not made by simply stratifying the main endemicity map; instead the estimated probability distribution of endemicity at each pixel (approx. 1km2) is used to determine the 'most likely' level of risk, thereby taking into account uncertainty in the model output.

This map is accompanied by two further maps of i) model uncertainty and ii) a population-weighted index of uncertainty (see the bottom of this page).

You can find out more about our use of Bayesian model-based geostatistics here.


Tools used to create map & published version

Data Protocol [390.2 KB] (PDF)

Statistical Protocol [273.8 KB] (PDF)

Gething, P.W.*, Patil, A.P.*, Smith, D.L.*, Guerra, C.A., Elyazar, I.R.F., Johnston , G.L., Tatem, A.J. and Hay, S.I. (2011). A new world malaria map: Plasmodium falciparum endemicity in 2010. Malaria Journal, 10: 378. *indicates equal authorship.