The spatial distribution of Plasmodium vivax malaria endemicity map in 2010 globally

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This map shows estimated levels of Plasmodium vivax malaria endemicity within the limits of stable transmission.

The mapped variable is the age-standardised P. vivax Parasite Rate (PvPR0-99) which describes the estimated proportion of  the general population that are infected with P. vivax at any one time, averaged over the 12 months of 2010. The map also displays the limits of unstable P. vivax malaria transmission (in dark grey) and the areas where both transmission is unstable and the proportion of the human population who are Duffy negative is greater than 90% (hashed area).

Estimates are made based on data from parasite rate surveys which feed into a geostatistical model that produces a a range of predicted endemicities for each location (a probability distribution). The model also uses data from environmental covariates which help predict more accurately, especially in areas far from any actual survey data. The environmental covariates include rainfall, temperature, land cover and urban/ rural status. The model incorporated data on Duffy negativity in human populations, particularly in Africa, and we also provide a separate map of the predicted frequency of Duffy negativity. The endemicity map displayed above shows the mean value for the probability distribution at each location (approx. 5x5km) and accompanying maps showing two measures of uncertainty in our predictions are provided below.

You can find out more about our use of Bayesian model-based geostatistics here.

Tools used to create map & published version

Global surface in Binary Float format [2.8 MB] (None)

Global surface in GeoTiff format [3.4 MB] (None)

Gething, P.W., Elyazar, I.R.F., Moyes, C.M., Smith, D.L., Battle, K.E., Guerra, C.A., Patil, A.P., Tatem, A.J., Howes, R.E., Myers, M.F., George, D.B., Horby, P., Wertheim, H.F., Price, R., Müller, I., Baird, J.K. and Hay, S.I. (2012). A long neglected world malaria map: Plasmodium vivax endemicity in 2010. Public Library of Science Neglected Tropical Diseases, 6(9): e1814.