This map shows the estimated limits of Plasmodium falciparum malaria transmission.
Areas shown in light grey are those likely to be risk-free. This classification arises because either health system surveillance data (annual case incidence) reported zero cases for three consecutive years, because low temperatures or high aridity are likely to preclude transmission, or because specific medical intelligence exists for the area defining it as risk free.
Areas shown in light pink are those at risk of unstable malaria transmission. These areas are those where local transmission cannot be ruled out, but levels of risk are extremely low, with annual case incidence reported at less than 1 per 10,000.
Areas in red are those at risk of stable malaria transmission. This is a very broad classification of risk including any regions where the annual case incidence is likely to exceed 1 per 10,000. Within this category we carry out more elaborate spatial modelling based on parasite rate data and environmental variables, providing maps of endemicity.
We use annual case incidence data over the most recent four years (where we have access to the data) and at the smallest district size available.